Can the hottest propylene successfully build the b

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Propylene: can we successfully build the bottom

propylene: can we successfully build the bottom

March 13, 2019

since 2019, the domestic propylene market has mainly fallen, and the focus of market prices has fallen rapidly. This is an important strategic deployment made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to focus on building a manufacturing power and ensuring national security. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong fell from 8300 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.89%; Since March, the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong has fallen from 7200 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 11.11%. The decline rate of propylene price has significantly increased. At present, the market price has gradually become clear that Brooke's positioning is green boutique hotel Lang, the margin of interest concessions has been reduced, downstream inquiries and refinery shipments have significantly improved, and can the propylene market bottom successfully? Let's watch it together

data source: jinlianchuang

first of all, Chinese coatings for crude oil. The international crude oil continued the trend of range fluctuation, and the average prices of WTI and Brent fluctuated. On the positive side, first, opec+ has a firm attitude towards production reduction; Second, the market expects that China and the United States are close to reaching a trade agreement, the trade dispute is expected to end, and market risk sentiment is effectively mitigated. However, the current market supply and demand side is still facing great pressure, and the continued rise of U.S. crude oil production worries the market. In terms of technical indicators next week, crude oil prices will enter a volatile range. On the one hand, OPEC's production reduction is expected to be delayed to support the market mentality. On the other hand, the recent poor performance of economic data from China and the United States has put pressure on oil prices. International crude oil continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, which is expected to provide limited support to the domestic propylene market

from the supply side, the market is not all good. Since the 4th, Ningbo Haiyue PDH device has been shut down for maintenance, a small amount of inventory in the plant has been exported, and some goods from Shandong have flowed into East China; Meanwhile, on March 1, Wanhua chemical suspended the supply of about 300 tons, and the load of its PDH device decreased slightly. It is reported that in order to maintain the production of downstream products in its propylene industry chain, it began to successively extract an appropriate amount of propylene from the spot. However, at present, the supply pressure of downstream and import has not decreased. It is reported that in the early stage, a large number of propylene cargo ships arrived at Shandong Port, (3) the import spot inventory of high-performance fluorosilicone port was high, but due to the imbalance between domestic supply and demand in China, the market price continued to fall, curbing the downstream pick-up demand, and the short-term propylene supply pressure of Shandong Port was not reduced. At the same time, Tianjin Zhongsha began maintenance on the 7th for a week, with a daily discharge of 800 tons; The overhaul of Qilu Petrochemical butanol octanol unit was postponed to the 11th, which is expected to last about 15 days, with a daily output of 700 tons (400 tons of polymer grade + 300 tons of oil refining grade), and the impact will continue until the end of March. In the short term, the inventory pressure of Shandong local refinery is not reduced, and the propylene market supply is still facing major uncertainties

data source: jinlianchuang

on the demand side, the powder Market weakened and fell during the week, but the decline and rate of decline were far less than that of propylene. In terms of cost, the weekly price difference between propylene and powder is 1380 yuan/ton, the weekly profit of powder enterprises is 780 yuan/ton, the weekly profit rate is 7.98%, and the profit of powder enterprises increases significantly. At present, the market price of propylene in Shandong has fallen to 6400 yuan/ton, breaking the new low since May 2017, which makes the profits of downstream powder, butyl octanol and propylene oxide continue to rise, and the downstream operation is enthusiastic. Although the current median raw material inventory is high, there is still a certain demand for bargain hunting replenishment. Next week, Shandong Haili acrylonitrile unit and lihuayi Weiyuan phenol ketone unit are scheduled to resume production. At that time, the demand in the province may recover to a certain extent, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the downstream will improve, the refinery inventory pressure will be gradually relieved through manual loading, and the propylene market may turn upside

on the whole, Tianjin Zhongsha and Qilu Petrochemical continued to release spot propylene, and the benefits of load reduction and maintenance of Wanhua chemical and Ningbo Haiyue PDH units are not clear for the time being. The overhaul season of local refining is coming, and there are more uncertain factors in the supply side of propylene market. At present, the decline in Shandong market has narrowed significantly, and the market price has become clearer. With the propylene market bottoming out, downstream bargain hunting, market activity picking up, and refinery inventory pressure easing, there may be some intention to push up. However, the supply pressure in the propylene market remains unchanged, and Qilu Petrochemical's spot release continues until the late part of this month. Therefore, there may still be a small inertia decline in the short-term propylene market, and there is a great possibility of cautious upward promotion in the later stage. It is suggested to pay close attention to the ground refining inventory and downstream operation

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