Honeywell Airlines predicts 2019 global business a

2022-08-12
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Honeywell aviation predicts that the global business aircraft sales in 2019 will reach $200billion

on February 10, 2010, Honeywell (NYSE: HON) recently predicted in its annual business aviation outlook that about 11000 new business aircraft will be delivered between 2009 and 2019, resulting in about $200billion in industry sales

in the survey in 2008, the procurement plan in Asia increased by nearly 9 percentage points over the previous year, which is still high compared with other regions and historical levels. In the survey in 2009, the total amount of renewal and expansion plans in the region exceeded 58%, and in 2008, the figure was close to 50%

obviously, the global economic recession has little impact on major Asian economies such as China and India, which has raised optimistic expectations for the business aircraft market. The lowering of the threshold of business machines and the convenience of use have also played a role in this

according to the survey of operators, long-term buyers are increasingly interested. However, in the five-year plan window, the timing of the new procurement plan is relatively late at present; This strongly indicates that a large part of demand will be suppressed by, which will change the expectation of orders and new machine delivery

Rob Wilson, President of business and General Aviation Department of Honeywell Aerospace Group, said: the operators interviewed said that their new procurement plans had been less affected in the key international markets in Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East within five years

Wilson said: the relatively stable level and timing of international procurement plans show that by, the suppressed demand will increase the order volume and new machine delivery rate, which is similar to the situation experienced by the industry in the last economic cycle. Although some projects have been cancelled and delayed, there are still strong high-value new model series to ensure long-term growth; Our survey shows that international demand is still strong

due to the small size of the fleet in this area, it is expected to change significantly. As in other regions, most of the changes come from the fleet renewal and improvement plan rather than the expansion plan

in the medium and long term, confidence in the economic growth of Asia and the Middle East remains high, thus increasing interest in large and long-range aircraft with better economic operation. There are also concerns about new working time limits and carbon emission regulations in the region

despite the impact of the global economic recession, Asia, Africa and the Middle East are still the regions with the highest procurement expectations. 55% of procurement in Africa/Middle East is expected to increase by more than 10 percentage points from 2008, reaching a new high

all increased procurement plans come from fleet updates. The demand for fleet expansion decreased by about 3 percentage points over the previous year. The Middle East and some African economies continue to benefit from rising oil prices and sharply growing trade with China and Asia; Operators in these regions are expected to become active buyers. The procurement planning time of operators is earlier than that of Latin America, North America and Europe. However, the fleet in these areas is small. Therefore, before the expansion of the fleet in the future, even if the planned procurement rate is very high, the absolute number of new aircraft procurement is small

2008 marks the end of the unprecedented five-year expansion of the industry since 2003. After peaking in 2008, it is expected that the delivery of new aircraft will decline by about 30% in 2009, and then decline again in 2010 before starting to recover in 2011

the global procurement expectation in the latest survey increased

Honeywell's 2009 procurement expectation survey was based on interviews conducted in the second and third quarters of 2009, and conducted a random sampling of more than 1200 company flight departments around the world. In general, despite the economic turmoil of the previous year, the global procurement plan is still higher than the level in 2008

the procurement expectation in North America declined slightly, but the procurement expectation in several other regions of the world increased unexpectedly. Globally, this year's respondents said that they expected the purchase of new aircraft in the next five years to be about 40% of their current fleet, up about 8 percentage points from the 2008 survey results. This includes the aircraft used to replace the old aircraft and the experimental film with a large number of pairs used to expand the capacity of the aircraft fleet, which can improve the operational efficiency when continuing the experiment

wilson said: the overall procurement expectations have increased significantly, indicating that the industry is becoming increasingly global, and that the industry's expectations for economic recovery in many regions outside North America have strengthened

at present, the international demand accounts for more than 50% of the estimated new machine procurement plan in the next five years. Honeywell predicts that the different regional combinations of aircraft delivery will continue to reflect this global change in this share

the total data of five-year procurement expectations in all regions is more than 30% higher than the level reported by Honeywell in 2008. Procurement in North America and Latin America is expected to decline, but Europe has increased significantly, and the Middle East and Asia also have moderate growth

Honeywell's 2009 survey showed that the global potential demand for aircraft exceeded 5000 in, excluding the demand for property sharing or brand charter entrepreneurial enterprises and piston aircraft owners to purchase jet aircraft. The positive findings are welcome, but the possibility of a rapid recovery in delivery is small, because this potential demand must be turned into actual orders, and then into an increase in production. If the procurement plan is still strong, it will take some time to implement. Wilson added: it is clear that global operators have crossed the current economic situation and set their sights far ahead, and it is expected that the business environment will recover, and the global sales of the pharmaceutical industry will reach US $1.1 trillion. The degree of optimism varies slightly across regions, but given that the procurement plan reported this year shows good expectations, this growth is inevitable. Although these results are very optimistic, it should be noted that in the five-year window period, the planned procurement in most regions will be postponed to after 2010

North America expectation

in North America, respondents to the 2009 survey said they expected to buy aircraft equivalent to about 40% of their existing fleet in the next five years to replace old aircraft or expand the fleet

wilson said: the expected level of procurement in North America is encouraging. Despite the negative growth of the U.S. economy and some unfavorable publicity in China, the survey shows that the purchase volume in the five years will remain at a level similar to that of the 2008 survey, which reflects the value these aircraft can provide and the productivity of leaving different gaps according to different sample shapes (including rubber sheets for rectangular samples)

we know that people continue to express concern about many issues, such as the large aircraft safety program (LSAP) and other TSA regulations, user fees and carbon emission regulations, as well as the relevant declaration and compliance costs in the United States. Coupled with the weak economy, in this year's survey, the timing of new aircraft procurement in the five-year window is more uncertain, Wilson said. Many announced plans have been extended to 2011 and beyond. Despite these concerns, the overall procurement plan in the region remained stable, with an increase in renewal plans, which was offset by a decline in fleet expansion plans

Honeywell's baseline forecast is negative 2.% GDP growth is based on the year, but it will return to a positive growth of about 2% in 2010. In the past year, more consistent estimates and predictions from several sources have replaced the continuously fluctuating economic forecast. If the accuracy of the strain gauge is not high, or the aging resistance of the glue used to fix the strain gauge is not good, or the material of the sensor is not good, it will affect the accuracy and service life measurement of the sensor, which seems to be stable in this range

regional procurement expectations

in other regions, the five-year procurement expectations are different. In Europe, the procurement is expected to be equivalent to nearly 59% of the current fleet, with a significant increase and a record high, far higher than the level of more than 25% in recent years. Despite the current economic contraction, the strong procurement plan in Europe for nine consecutive years shows that operators in this region attach great importance to the use of business machines, Wilson said

as expected, the strong recovery of euro, pound, Swiss franc and ruble against the US dollar is also an incentive for the purchase of new aircraft, as is the recovery of strong growth rates and business expansion in Eastern Europe and Russia after 2010. In early 2009, during the most unstable period of the economy, the strengthening of the US dollar against these currencies has been reversed. As interest rates remain low and the deficit increases, the possibility of the dollar weakening will still exist for some time. With the recovery of economic growth, this trend helps to support the demand for new machines in the region

on the whole, compared with the survey results in 2008, the demand for the renewal of the already large fleet of European operating businesses has increased. The reduction of the fleet expansion plan only offset a small part of the renewal plan

the procurement plan is mainly in, which shows that North American respondents are more confident. European respondents expressed great interest in changing to larger, longer range, more efficient or lower cost models. Their concerns are closely related to those expressed by North American respondents, focusing on changing operating and noise regulations and the cost of compliance with upcoming carbon emission limits

Latin America

in Latin America, the procurement expectation level of operators in the 2009 survey was slightly low. In the report of this region, operators plan to purchase new aircraft equivalent to more than 40% of the current fleet size in the next five years to replace old aircraft or expand capacity

although the purchase interest is still at a historical high, equivalent to or even higher than the level in 2007 and before, the purchase plan is about 5 percentage points lower than the survey in 2008

since the expectation of rapid recovery of economic growth is less optimistic than that of other regions outside North America, Latin American procurement plans were affected in the 2009 survey. Latin American operators seem to be more cautious about the recovery, and the number of new machines they plan to buy before 2011 is very small. Range and efficiency are the main reasons for replacing the old models. Concern about the trade restrictions stipulated in the security regulations of Venezuela and the United States is the biggest concern of Latin American operators

reasons for fleet renewal

the main reasons for replacing existing aircraft are relatively consistent with the previous investigation results; All regions regard the service life, cockpit size and voyage extension as important standards. Perhaps, as expected in the current economic environment, the intention of various regions to replace existing aircraft with more efficient or lower operating costs this year is becoming increasingly obvious. New avionics technology and engines are also the main reasons why regions plan to replace aircraft

customers tell us that they need affordable and efficient aircraft. At present, the technology of the next generation flight environment is entering the market; Manufacturers pursue these technologies tirelessly in order to meet the needs of customers. Wilson said that the required navigation performance (RNP) and the wide area augmentation system (waas-lpv) introduced to support the vertical pointing of positioning beacons, together with the improved cockpit comfort, extended range, broader mission performance and safety system, will produce high-performance, low-cost business aircraft. New and old business aircraft OEMs can use these innovative technologies

old aircraft and aviation operation level

the recent market environment for old aircraft is still severe. Last year, the seller's quotation began to fall sharply, initially for old aircraft, but recently the price of newer aircraft has fallen sharply

it is estimated that after several consecutive years of gradual growth, today

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